Real Estate Financing in 2026: Key Considerations for Investors
This article previously appeared in the Vastgoedjournaal
The Dutch real estate financing market enters 2026 with more stability than during the interest rate stress of 2022 and 2023, but certainly not without new risks. Financing is available again, albeit much more selective. At the same time, the war surrounding Iran is causing nervous energy and capital markets. For investors, therefore, 2026 is less about whether debt is available, and more about whether cash flow can absorb higher interest rates, more expensive energy, and rising operating costs.
The first point of attention is that financing is no longer cheap, but it is more predictable. Market interest rates have moved relatively little in recent months, making pricing easier to model again. However, this stability does not mean that leverage has become cheap. Lenders remain vigilant regarding Loan-to-Value, and margins at the top of the capital structure are still rising rapidly. For investors, therefore, conservative leverage in 2026 is not a defensive luxury, but a prerequisite for absorbing setbacks.
The second point of concern is inflation. The baseline forecast for the Netherlands was previously around 2.4 to 2.9 percent, but the war in the Middle East has made that picture clearly more fragile. Oil and gas prices react sharply to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while that route is crucial for global energy flows. If these high energy prices persist for an extended period and have a broader impact on transport, building materials, and food, inflation of around 5 percent by the end of the year cannot be ruled out. That is still somewhat different from the peak of 2022, but high enough to put financing models under pressure. In addition, a prolonged aftermath is likely to lead to increased demand for gas and oil, while supply has not been scaled up quickly.
The third area of focus is interest rates. Financial markets show that investors are once again pricing in risk: the German ten-year bond yield rose from around 2.7 to 3 percent in a short time, and stock markets also declined. This is no proof that a new interest rate shock like the one in 2022 is inevitable. That situation was more extreme, with gas prices above 300 euros per megawatt-hour and an ECB that had to intervene from a much lower interest rate level. The policy rate is already higher now, and central banks will likely wait and see first. However, if the energy shock proves persistent, interest rate hikes could be back on the table sooner than investors thought a few months ago.
The fourth area of focus is refinancing. In 2026, this will be less of an administrative matter and more of a quality assessment. Lenders are scrutinizing location, structural condition, sustainability, and rentability more critically. This applies especially to offices and properties requiring capex. Mediocre assets could often still hold their own during the years of cheap money; in this market, the refinanceability of the property itself is becoming a valuation theme. Investors would therefore be wise to fully factor in not only the interest rate premium but also the investment needs for sustainability improvements and repositioning.
The fifth point of attention lies in operations. The war surrounding Iran impacts not only energy bills but also supply chains, construction costs, and public sentiment. This affects logistics real estate relatively quickly, precisely due to the global nature of goods flows. In residential properties, regulation remains the determining factor on top of this. The Affordable Rent Act limits the scope for passing on cost increases, while maintenance, insurance, and interest can rise. Residential properties remain financeable, but only if the business case holds up even when inflation temporarily rises faster than rent growth.
The sixth area of focus is sentiment, taxation, and exit. Investors have become more cautious; volatility indicators are rising, and European data show that concerns about growth and inflation are returning to allocation decisions. This does not necessarily have to lead to a repeat of the sharp write-downs and volume decline of 2022. In fact, the market started 2026 relatively strongly, and structural housing shortages are supporting rent and value creation. Nevertheless, an exit remains less straightforward than in the years of abundant capital. In addition, private and smaller investors must look ahead to the Box 3 regime starting in 2028. As a result, purchase, financing, and sale are once again much more closely interconnected.
The key for 2026 is therefore not that real estate financing dries up, but that the margin of error narrows. Those who bet on low leverage, realistic rent growth, a sufficient capex buffer, and operations that remain stable even under increased energy and price pressure are well-positioned. Those counting on rapid interest rate declines, maximum rent pass-through, and an easy exit face more risk in 2026 than the stability on paper suggests.
The Dutch real estate financing market enters 2026 with more stability than during the interest rate stress of 2022 and 2023, but certainly not without new risks. Financing is available again, albeit much more selective. At the same time, the war surrounding Iran is causing nervous energy and capital markets. For investors, therefore, 2026 is less about whether debt is available, and more about whether cash flow can absorb higher interest rates, more expensive energy, and rising operating costs.
The first point of attention is that financing is no longer cheap, but it is more predictable. Market interest rates have moved relatively little in recent months, making pricing easier to model again. However, this stability does not mean that leverage has become cheap. Lenders remain vigilant regarding Loan-to-Value, and margins at the top of the capital structure are still rising rapidly. For investors, therefore, conservative leverage in 2026 is not a defensive luxury, but a prerequisite for absorbing setbacks.
The second point of concern is inflation. The baseline forecast for the Netherlands was previously around 2.4 to 2.9 percent, but the war in the Middle East has made that picture clearly more fragile. Oil and gas prices react sharply to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while that route is crucial for global energy flows. If these high energy prices persist for an extended period and have a broader impact on transport, building materials, and food, inflation of around 5 percent by the end of the year cannot be ruled out. That is still somewhat different from the peak of 2022, but high enough to put financing models under pressure. In addition, a prolonged aftermath is likely to lead to increased demand for gas and oil, while supply has not been scaled up quickly.
The third area of focus is interest rates. Financial markets show that investors are once again pricing in risk: the German ten-year bond yield rose from around 2.7 to 3 percent in a short time, and stock markets also declined. This is no proof that a new interest rate shock like the one in 2022 is inevitable. That situation was more extreme, with gas prices above 300 euros per megawatt-hour and an ECB that had to intervene from a much lower interest rate level. The policy rate is already higher now, and central banks will likely wait and see first. However, if the energy shock proves persistent, interest rate hikes could be back on the table sooner than investors thought a few months ago.
The fourth area of focus is refinancing. In 2026, this will be less of an administrative matter and more of a quality assessment. Lenders are scrutinizing location, structural condition, sustainability, and rentability more critically. This applies especially to offices and properties requiring capex. Mediocre assets could often still hold their own during the years of cheap money; in this market, the refinanceability of the property itself is becoming a valuation theme. Investors would therefore be wise to fully factor in not only the interest rate premium but also the investment needs for sustainability improvements and repositioning.
The fifth point of attention lies in operations. The war surrounding Iran impacts not only energy bills but also supply chains, construction costs, and public sentiment. This affects logistics real estate relatively quickly, precisely due to the global nature of goods flows. In residential properties, regulation remains the determining factor on top of this. The Affordable Rent Act limits the scope for passing on cost increases, while maintenance, insurance, and interest can rise. Residential properties remain financeable, but only if the business case holds up even when inflation temporarily rises faster than rent growth.
The sixth area of focus is sentiment, taxation, and exit. Investors have become more cautious; volatility indicators are rising, and European data show that concerns about growth and inflation are returning to allocation decisions. This does not necessarily have to lead to a repeat of the sharp write-downs and volume decline of 2022. In fact, the market started 2026 relatively strongly, and structural housing shortages are supporting rent and value creation. Nevertheless, an exit remains less straightforward than in the years of abundant capital. In addition, private and smaller investors must look ahead to the Box 3 regime starting in 2028. As a result, purchase, financing, and sale are once again much more closely interconnected.
The key for 2026 is therefore not that real estate financing dries up, but that the margin of error narrows. Those who bet on low leverage, realistic rent growth, a sufficient capex buffer, and operations that remain stable even under increased energy and price pressure are well-positioned. Those counting on rapid interest rate declines, maximum rent pass-through, and an easy exit face more risk in 2026 than the stability on paper suggests.
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